A New Look at the Population Bomb Debate
Written on
Chapter 1: The Alarmist Predictions
History is not always a reliable predictor of future events, so we should reconsider the validity of alarmist forecasts that lack substantial evidence.
In 1968, just before the Apollo 11 mission that took humanity to the moon, researcher Paul Ehrlich published a book titled The Population Bomb, which presented a dire outlook for the future. He famously claimed, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In spite of any crash programs embarked upon now, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in the 1970s.”
However, Ehrlich's predictions did not come to fruition, while the Apollo mission was a resounding success. Current studies from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington suggest that by 2100, over 97% of countries will have fertility rates insufficient to maintain their populations. The researchers warn that these demographic changes might jeopardize economies, food security, health, the environment, and geopolitical stability.
This latest study, much like Ehrlich's earlier work, overlooks the capacity of human innovation and our persistent drive to improve the future for all. The Apollo 11 mission, led by Commander Neil Armstrong, captivated over 150 million viewers and represented a significant triumph in the Cold War, alongside being a monumental scientific achievement.
The moon landing marked the dawn of the Space Age, sparking advancements in technology and materials that continue to enhance our lives today. The accomplishments of Armstrong and the 400,000 individuals involved in the Apollo program include heat shields for spacecraft, memory foam, Velcro, and numerous advancements in medical technology, satellite communication, and water purification.
As we consider the technology of the 22nd century, it is evident that it will far surpass what we have now. The same can be said for the societal landscape of 2100. IHME's projections neglect these advancements, which is why their alarming predictions should be approached with skepticism.
Section 1.1: The Reality of Declining Fertility Rates
While it’s true that fertility rates in countries like Italy and China are currently below the levels needed to sustain their populations, these situations are influenced by unique socio-political contexts. In China, the historically imposed one-child policy has contributed to this decline, and the government's current push for families is meeting resistance from women who prioritize their careers.
In Italy, economic uncertainty, high living costs, and limited support have led many young people to live with their parents, delaying family formation. These challenges are compounded by geopolitical tensions and economic instability, as the influence of the American Empire wanes amid conflicts abroad.
Section 1.2: A Glimpse at Human Resilience
Faced with these challenges, should we brace for the worst? Or should we reflect on our achievements during some of the darkest periods? History is replete with individuals who have transformed the world for the better, rather than lamenting a lost past.
Jonas Edward Salk, born to Russian-Jewish immigrants, utilized the technology of the 1950s to develop the polio vaccine, saving countless lives. He famously chose not to patent his work, driven solely by the desire to help. Salk’s relentless pursuit of a cure for AIDS in his later years underscores the importance of dedication and innovation.
In December 2022, scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory achieved a significant breakthrough in hydrogen fusion, generating more energy than consumed in the reaction. This advancement holds the potential to provide a sustainable, clean energy source, with companies like Toyota leading the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles.
The Covid-19 pandemic, which claimed over 18 million lives, was met with a scientific breakthrough as researchers like Dr. Ugur Sahin and Dr. Katalin Karikó developed an innovative RNA vaccine technology. This advancement allows for faster vaccine production, showcasing humanity's capacity to adapt and thrive amidst challenges.
Survival is one thing; thriving is another. The pessimists who continually predict doom will not guide us into the future. Instead, it is the brave astronauts, dedicated scientists, and visionary thinkers who will shape the next 75 years and beyond.
“Apollo 11 Liftoff!” by NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.