Prediction 1: Gradual Progress in Web Accessibility

Recent annual reports, such as SOAR and WebAIM Million, indicate minor advancements in web accessibility, although the overall situation remains concerning. WebAIM's findings from 2021 showed that 97.4% of home pages displayed WCAG 2 failures, a slight decrease from 98.1% in early 2020. If this trend continues, we may not achieve substantial web accessibility until the late 2070s or 2080s. The SOAR report, which assesses registration processes through manual testing, found that 62% of the top 100 Alexa websites were screen-reader accessible, a rise from 40% in 2020.

The trends suggest:

1. Larger corporations, with greater financial resources and DEI initiatives, are advancing accessibility more rapidly.
2. Smaller organizations, lacking the same resources, are lagging behind but remain at risk of legal repercussions.

Prediction 2: Rise in Digital Accessibility Lawsuits

In 2021, we witnessed a notable increase in digital accessibility litigation, with over 4,000 lawsuits filed. The key question for 2022 is whether upcoming legal restrictions in New York and Florida will prevent the total from reaching 5,000. According to a Forrester survey, 84% of companies are actively working on accessibility improvements, leaving a concerning 16% exposed to potential lawsuits. Notably, the Hooters case established that companies can still face legal action even after settling or beginning remediation efforts.

In jurisdictions adhering to the Hooters doctrine, any organization could be sued until all customer-facing websites and mobile applications meet accessibility standards.

Prediction 3: Impact of Verdicts and Settlements on Overlays

Despite claims from overlay vendors that their tools are widely adopted, over 200 companies using these overlays faced lawsuits in 2021 for accessibility failures. Significant settlements, including those involving EyeBob's and ADP, are reshaping the landscape. The Department of Justice is expected to intensify scrutiny of overlay usage, particularly concerning COVID-related resources and financial penalties imposed on individuals with disabilities.

The ADP settlement was pivotal for several reasons:

• ADP ranks #208 on the Fortune 500 list.
• Disability Rights Advocates (DRA), representing the plaintiff, is renowned for impactful accessibility litigation.
• The plaintiff, San Francisco Lighthouse for the Blind, pursues meaningful legal action, not just quick settlements.
• Lainey Feingold's Structured Negotiation process was utilized in the ADP case, and her book is essential reading for accessibility professionals.

Concerns about the viability of overlay vendors are evident, as demonstrated by AudioEye's plummeting stock price, which has fallen from a high of 42 in February 2021 to below 7, largely due to poor management and minimal investment in research and development.

Prediction 4: Adoption of WCAG 2.2 as the New Standard

Anticipated to be finalized in early 2022, WCAG 2.2 is expected to become the new standard for assessing digital accessibility among private sector entities. Following the trend from WCAG 2.1, which was referenced in a settlement just months after its finalization, we can expect similar outcomes for WCAG 2.2. It adds eight new Level A and AA criteria, with accessible authentication being a critical focus for implementation.

However, the public sector may not adopt these guidelines as swiftly, as the process involves extensive hearings and comment periods.

Prediction 5: Companies Preparing for WCAG 3.0

While WCAG 3.0 is still under development, many larger companies are eager to get ahead of its implementation. Proposed changes include new methods for assessing color contrast and a shift away from the traditional A, AA, AAA criteria to a scoring system.

The proposed APCA (Advanced Perceptual Contrast Algorithm) will introduce more nuanced assessments for color contrast, moving beyond the simplistic ratios of previous guidelines. As companies begin to strategize for upcoming changes, they must consider the implications for their branding and digital properties.