Chapter 1: The Enduring Nature of Hope

During my initial visit to Russia, I encountered the saying Надежда умирает последней ("hope dies last"), a phrase that encapsulates why individuals persist in endeavors with minimal chances of success. Hope is deeply ingrained in human cognition, observable in various scenarios. Most soldiers don’t march into battle expecting to meet their end; they cling to the hope of survival amidst chaos. Similarly, employees seldom resign themselves to the idea of being easily replaceable; they often hold onto the hope of job security, despite the shortcomings of their superiors.

This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the quest for romantic connections. The instinct to seek companionship is powerful, fueled by the fear of loneliness. Unfortunately, in our increasingly fragmented society, the avenues for forming meaningful relationships are severely limited.

We face restrictions in workplace romances due to HR regulations, especially when hierarchical differences exist. Social circles are dwindling, as many people find themselves isolated at home, fixated on screens instead of engaging with others. Casual encounters in public spaces have become fraught with the risk of misinterpretation, often labeled as harassment.

Thus, we turn to the Internet.

Around a quarter-century ago, as the Internet began its journey toward widespread commercialization, dating websites started to emerge. In those earlier days, before the prevalence of bots, fake profiles, and scams, many authentic users created profiles that reflected real people. While it was common for women to adjust their ages and weights and for men to embellish their heights and wealth, these fabrications were part of a familiar dance. Beneath these deceptions, genuine connections were often forged, leading to moments of intimacy and companionship, at least temporarily.

However, a fundamental flaw plagued these dating platforms: the more successful they were at uniting real individuals, the more they lost customers. Each genuine match meant two fewer active users. Initial word-of-mouth might have softened the impact, but it couldn't address the core issue. Sustainable business models thrive on repeat customers, while those that deliver a singular, fulfilling experience risk becoming obsolete.

To illustrate this, let’s examine a few other industries.

Cars are designed with planned obsolescence in mind, ensuring they begin to deteriorate after a certain mileage, prompting consumers to buy new vehicles. While modern automobiles could easily last 500,000 miles, manufacturers prioritize new sales over durability. Additionally, the fashion industry perpetuates a cycle of constant consumption, compelling individuals to acquire new items every few years.

In pharmaceuticals, companies favor medications that create lifelong dependencies, ensuring a steady stream of revenue. Weight-loss drugs exemplify this, as users often regain weight once they stop taking them. Even in complex tax systems, like the U.S. IRS code, convoluted regulations ensure individuals must continually pay for assistance, benefiting those in the accounting field.

These recurring-revenue models illustrate a broader trend: businesses thrive on creating systems that compel ongoing purchases.

Returning to dating platforms, the early landscape of online dating was marked by numerous small players eager to attract hopeful singles. If one site didn't meet expectations, users could easily switch to another. Competition was the primary barrier to establishing a recurring revenue model.

Match.com emerged as a prominent player, recognizing the opportunity to consolidate the online dating market. They began acquiring other successful sites, ensuring that whenever a new player entered the field, Match Group would swoop in with lucrative offers. They also established internal innovation teams to create new dating sites, fostering an illusion of competition while effectively eliminating it.

The power of consolidation that leads to a monopoly cannot be understated. While some monopolies exploit their dominance to inflate prices, others, like Match Group, employ different strategies to secure sustainable returns.

Match Group capitalizes on human hope through two primary methods. Firstly, they create an illusion of abundance. Users visiting any of Match Group's platforms are met with a seemingly endless array of potential partners. For many, this illusion is enough. The act of swiping right generates a small dopamine surge, reinforcing the idea of control and success, even if the likelihood of mutual interest remains low. Many users fail to recognize that most profiles are either fake or outdated, perpetuating the illusion of choice. Even those aware of the deception often choose to believe in the possibilities.

When users become disenchanted with their experiences, they eventually leave. However, the desire for companionship doesn’t vanish; after a period of recovery, many seek to try again, often on a different site owned by Match Group. They opt for a fresh start, convinced that their next attempt will yield different results.

Thus, Match Group successfully recaptures its customers, continuously generating revenue across multiple platforms. The company holds a vast array of dating sites, further complicating the landscape.

Allegations have surfaced suggesting that profiles from one Match Group site are reused on others, maintaining the crucial illusion of plenty. Ultimately, Match Group sells an illusion, preying on our intrinsic hope for a better tomorrow, ensuring that users perpetually migrate from one platform to another, believing that their luck will change.

Statistically, a small percentage of users will find success, which serves to validate the marketing claims. With millions of users on Match Group's platforms, even a tiny success rate can be spun into compelling narratives that feed our hopes.

As dating apps remain under the radar of regulators, and with Match Group's political influence, there's little chance of breaking up their monopoly to foster genuine competition in the online dating arena.

The irony of the Internet is that it promised connection but has delivered isolation, leaving individuals trapped in a cycle of hope and disillusionment. Social media algorithms reinforce existing beliefs, leading to increasing social harm by prioritizing engagement over meaningful interactions. Dating apps exploit human hope while deliberately undermining it, ensuring a steady stream of predictable revenue.

It's no surprise that birth rates are declining and feelings of isolation and depression are on the rise.

But hey, it's an effective business model, right? So what if the consequences are dire?

Chapter 2: The Commercialization of Hope

"Hope Dies Last - YouTube" explores the persistence of hope in the face of adversity, emphasizing its role in human connection and resilience.

"Hope Dies Last - YouTube" highlights the challenges and complexities of maintaining hope in a digital world dominated by illusion and disillusionment.